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... the study of the past, particularly how it relates to humans.
Leaders are often time the single individual who announces to the people the decision for involvement initiate or get involved the conflict. after a consensus from small supportive groups of the governmental body
Stronger Leaders typically place more emphasis on peaceful relations rather than engaging their people in a conflict. They are not afraid to a take a stance for their counter and resist intimidation to enter conflicts.
Often times weak leaders seek out confrontation or engagement in hostilities of other countries in order save face in the eye of the world stage and their people.
Many of the all major governmental decisions, particularly when it revolves around the decision to engage in war or warlike activities are actually made by small groups in the country's leadership structure.
Exclusion of bad news
Leads to poor policy decisions by selectively revealing or concealing information to decision makers which might otherwise influence their commitment to participate in war or war-like actions
Decision making pressures
Flaws decision-making by policy makers due to increased pressures due to highly volatile situations which need to be acted upon posthaste
Frequent need for precisions-makers to respond quickly to crisis
The potential loss of human life should and will weigh heavily on the minds of decision-makers
Faulty and incomplete data
Incomplete or inaccurate intelligence data typically leads decision-makers to initiate plans based on stereotypes of opposition or from past examples of behaviors.
Decisions may sometimes be based on so much information the opportunity to discount irrelevant information isn't practiced.
The availability and abundance or rationale options are not always present giving decision makers few other avenues to pursue
Short term over long term
Many times policy makers make the decision to participate in conflict with only a perception of the short term outcomes, overlooking the possibilities of residual long term effects of engagement
Decision -makers feel compelled to resolve the conflict or situation instantaneously believing this may prevent a long term war.
Stress impacts the quality of decisions made by leaders who are under great pressure to respond.
The goal of crisis management is to prevent situations from escalating into war as well as to keep leaders in control and hopefully provide them with the maximum advantage in handling the situation before them
Psychological effects of Repetitive Crisis
Situations which posses the same characteristics which previously had escalated into war must be perceived to potentially repeat into war again. The expectancy of conflict ,destruction, and loss is to be expected when leaders co…
Crisis in the Nuclear Age
The totality of a nuclear option must be weighed at all costs before commitment to such an option is rationalized as an appropriate response. It has to be an no sensible alternative option.
Rational decision-making during a crisis
During the crisis leaders must base all decisions on the following before acting; must identify alternative courses of action; estimate costs; distinguish between probable and possible outcomes; asses the situation; discriminate between relative and non-rela…
Inaccurate perception of others
Misconceptions about the strength, intentions and abilities of the opposition often leads to poor policy decisions and actions regarding a country's involvement in war.
Tends to limit the scope of decision making which is based on little or unknown real facts of the outcome of past crises which have transitioned in war.
Double Standard hostility
The actions of the government are perceived to be perfectly acceptable unless the same over offensive actions are carried out by perceived enemies of the state.
Misinterpretation of messages in which the complexities involved in language barriers may be at fault often lead to I misguided decisions involved in real potentially damming decisions surrounding conflicts.
Leaders perceive the misinformation to be true in order to initiate action and give them cause for such. This is known as "jumping the gun". The want to be believe the information is right…
Misjudging the potential long-term commitments of perceived " get in, an get out quick" action initiated by leaders often leads to issues not properly addressed.
Negative but sometimes accurate, perceptions
Leaders undoubtedly often appear to have made the improper decision to initiate action towards war but in the final out come the decision turns out to be judged as the proper course of action.
This is the way a group makes decisions that hampers and dampens individual imagination and accountability. The result is an individual that may have a better idea or reason not to go to war is squished.
Bad news excluded
This occurs when a subordinate or someone from the intelligence community slants the information so the leader doesn't get mad or so they don't look bad in the eyes of the commander. It may …
When unexpected pressure or threats form that causes the leader to make rash decisions without the proper knowledge.
Decisions are made during times that there is pressure to make a decision quickly which can lead to a wrong decision.
Short-term over long-term
The leader focuses too much on the short term effects of the decision instead of developing patience and seeing what the long term implications for the decision are.
Psychological effects of repetitive crises
This is when the same crises is repeated over and over with each time getting closer and closer to war without any real resolution. The result before long is the leader usually makes the decision for war.
Rational decision making
The leader should see if there are any alternatives to war, estimate the cost verses the gains for a different policy, look at the difference between possible and probable, look at the others sides p…
This can impede precisely those decision processes needed during a crises, problem solving becomes difficult and verbal and logical performance deteriorates.
Issues regarding perception
One or both sides have the feeling that they are going to be attacked or they are attacked by the other side. The feeling both sides have is that they can win; otherwise they w…
Double standard of hostility
The leaders on one side feel they are justified in their actions toward the other side, but when the other side does the same thing to them it is not acceptable.
Perceive the other side as hostile
The leader perceives that the other side is hostile because of his own inabilities. The leader may be ego driven , or his behavior is controlled by various external constraints, or the leader has t…
Negative but sometimes accurate perceptions
Leaders assume that the other side is hostile and should not be trusted. This doesn't mean that the leaders can't seek peace; but it is the recognizing that the other side is dangerous.